The Sick Man of Eurasia

The news coming out of the Russian Federation is bleak. Ukraine’s attack on Kursk has garnered the most attention, but this incursion also represents a symbolic blow as well. Kursk serves as a sacred place in Soviet military folklore where the Red Army achieved one of its most decisive and glorious victories in World War II. Today Kursk stands as symbol of a military retreat and incompetence, exposing all the weaknesses that now entangle Russia in this war of its own choosing. With deliberate comparison to the Ottoman empire, Russia now represents the sick man of Eurasia. 

A Military Debacle

Russia is engaged in a war of attrition in which, despite its vaunted resilience, it is now confronted with disaster on multiple fronts. A “quick” war is now in its third year, with Moscow’s only hope that Ukraine is as exhausted as Russia. Putin created a false narrative as to why the war was necessary (imminent Ukrainian NATO membership, attacks on the Russian population in Ukraine). Moreover, Russia is waging war with poorly trained conscripts, who have now started deserting in increasing numbers. The FSB has used this opportunity to purge high-ranking generals, with numerous criminal charges filed against them.

The Ministry of Defense is now headed by an economist with no military experience. His most recent advice was to rely on robots and AI, although Russia has experienced a devastating loss of workers, engineers, and access to technology as a result of this invasion. Moreover, the loss of life, especially in a country experiencing a major demographic crisis, only portends future problems.

International Isolation and the Search for Internal Enemies

What else is failing? The BRICS—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa— keep adding new members, but the group has not offered any real alternative to Western institutions and values. Putin was not able to attend the most recent meeting in South Africa because local authorities would have had to detain him owing to an arrest warrant issued by the ICC for human rights violations and the abduction of Ukrainian children. Russia is waging war against a host of internal enemies and foreign agents—sometimes for symbolic reasons but sometimes with tragic consequences. Astonishingly, pianists have been in the crosshairs of the security apparatus. Evgeny Kissin was declared a foreign agent after he announced his opposition to the war. The pianist Pavel Kushnir was not as fortunate. He was arrested on charges of terrorism for republishing an antiwar video on YouTube. He ultimately died after a hunger strike in prison.

The Coming Meltdown

Putin and the Russian state are sitting on top of a social explosion. The attack on Kursk may be one catalyst, but there are other potential triggers as well. A partial litany includes the loss of energy superpower status, rising food prices, and labor shortages. Wage arrears, which were common after the collapse of the Soviet Union, have also now made a comeback. And just wait until Russia’s youth is deprived of Telegram, WhatsApp, and other social media outlets. Putin’s only response is a return to traditional values and a new project called “Russia and the World,” which, among other things, seeks more collaboration between Russian and foreign students. I doubt there will be any takers.

The Russian economy is in tatters, with a growing number of corporate bankruptcies and high rates of interest for Russians seeking private credit. Putin’s approval rating appears to have eroded significantly, a development that apparently escaped the heavy hand of Russia’s censors. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mishustin is relying on a series of grand national projects that have their roots in Soviet central planning and will take years to complete. 

And what about China, Russia’s erstwhile copartner in the new multipolar world? Well, Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian payments in yuan and have even started returning money to Russia. Other purported allies, including India, Turkey, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and even Kyrgyzstan, are wary of running afoul of sanctions. Putin’s other long-standing alternative economic strategy, import substitution, has been an unmitigated disaster, with shortages of pharmaceuticals and other Western products that Russians learned to take for granted. Putin claims that Russia’s sovereignty carries a national liberating character. We will soon find out whether the Russian people share similar beliefs.

Putin continues to bark out the economic orders (let’s bring down inflation), but Elvira Naibullina, the head of the Russian Central Bank, has only one answer in her toolkit: to raise interest rates to a stratospheric 20 percent.

The Rot Sinks In

The end of this war will not lead to renewed overtures to integrate Russia into the West, as occurred after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Instead, there will be a slow but concerted effort to hold Russia accountable for its human rights violations in Ukraine. Frozen money in Western banks will not be returned to Russia but instead will be redirected to rebuild Ukraine (which is already happening). Finally, Russia will no longer be able to claim the trendy title of an emerging market (as occurred in the 1990s) but will essentially be off-limits until all of the deprivatized Western companies that Putin has handed to his cronies get resolved. 

It is no wonder that trust among Russian citizens is at an all-time low. Putin’s inner circle includes relatives and his former bodyguard. The oligarchs seemingly have no influence on state policy. And even the Russian press is reporting on Putin’s decreasing popularity. Putin is adding more responsibilities, but most likely will only get the blame for Russia’s weakening position. 

This is how empires collapse. Cue Swan Lake.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.