Winds of Change: Ukrainian Politics Reacts to the US Electoral Drama

On the surface, Ukrainian politics has mostly been on hold since February 2022. With President Zelensky’s declaration of martial law on February 24, 2022, many constitutional freedoms were limited, the mass media came under strong government control, and political competition was restricted. National unity and solidarity of the power elites were the answer to the existential threat posed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Beneath the surface, however, various political factions have continued to compete for some influence over society’s sympathies, state budget spending, and projects connected to the nation’s future. Out of reach for these factions were international politics and relations with the West. This domain was Volodymyr Zelensky’s. A telling example of the enforcement of such monopoly is the repeated ban on trips abroad for Petro Poroshenko, leader of the opposition party European Solidarity and ex-president of Ukraine. He and his supporters were prohibited from attending important meetings in the United States and the EU in 2022, 2023, and in 2024. In the sixth year of Zelensky’s presidency, international recognition and Western support are critically important to the stability of both the presidency and the presidential administration. 

The current political turmoil in the United States creates new challenges for President Zelensky and new opportunities for the opposition. Ukrainian politicians of all camps have attentively observed the cautious language on Ukraine in the NATO summit declaration, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and the subsequent uptick in the likelihood of his winning the November election; with the same degree of attention they now watch the Democrats’ debates over their new candidate after President Biden decided to withdraw from the race. These events have provoked multiple reactions and point to changes in Ukrainian politics in the upcoming months. 

President Zelensky’s Team’s Reactions 

President Zelensky returned from the Washington NATO summit with the understanding that Western leaders are preparing for a change in the White House and in the policies related to support for Ukraine. The turmoil in U.S. politics is the likely cause of a change in Zelensky’s plan to end the war. For the first time in two years, he has hinted at the possibility of a negotiated end to the war.

Zelensky has also made an uneasy attempt to restart communication with former US president Donald Trump. Back in 2019, both politicians had many disagreements. On July 19, 2024, Zelensky’s team initiated a phone call with the GOP candidate. Zelensky’s team reported that in this conversation, the Ukrainian president congratulated Trump “on his nomination as the candidate of the Republican Party,” “condemned the attempted assassination,” and “emphasized the decisive role of bipartisan and bicameral support in the US Congress for the protection of our country from the Russian invasion.” For his part, Trump described it as “a very good phone call.” Later, however, Zelensky admitted it would be “hard work” to deal with Trump in the future. 

Relations between the teams of President Biden and President Zelensky appear to be good. The proof is in the tone of Zelensky’s message regarding Biden’s withdrawal from the elections on X: “Many strong decisions have been made in recent years and they will be remembered as bold steps taken by President Biden in response to challenging times. And we respect today’s tough but strong decision.” Kyiv definitely wants to continue a partnership with the White House, independent of who is in the Oval Office. 

Since Washington is now increasingly focused on its own political agenda, Kyiv is diversifying its international contacts. President Zelensky’s team is apparently looking for dialogue with other, non-Western influential players in international politics. On July 22, 2024, the Chinese foreign minister announced that China had organized a visit of Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, to Beijing, a visit few in Ukraine had anticipated. This is Kuleba’s first visit to China’s capital since the start of the Russian invasion, and some observers have already tied this trip to President Biden’s announcement. 

Reactions of Diverse Opposition Groups to President Biden’s Announcement

While preparing this material, I spoke with six MPs, mainly from opposition factions (which today include Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna, Poroshenko’s European Solidarity, and Holos, as well as several smaller MP groups formally totaling up to approximately 100 votes). Despite their different personal and party positions, they agreed on three issues. 

First, the Zelensky team’s informal focus on ties with Democrats could now create a backlash in the form of much cooler relations with Republicans. This would undermine the Zelensky administration’s once undisputed dominance of internal politics. 

Second, President Zelensky will probably try to accelerate indirect diplomatic processes to freeze the war. Kyiv may be in a stronger position during such negotiations while the Democrats are still in control of the White House and Senate. 

Third, the role of ex-president Poroshenko in Ukrainian politics is expected to increase. After five years on the margins of power, Poroshenko is slowly moving back to the center. He had rather productive relations with both Joe Biden and Donald Trump during their respective presidencies. Poroshenko’s party ideology is close to the current GOP’s in some matters. And Poroshenko, who has recently declared his intent to participate in presidential elections whenever they are announced, may find the global ideological turn to the right working in his favor. 

A Shift in Power Flows: Ramifications for Ukraine

Basically, the members of the Verkhovna Rada sense a change in the power flows and are trying to capitalize on it. The same phenomenon is shaping up outside parliament’s halls.

The extraparliamentary opposition politicians and groups are less sensitive to changes in the United States. Ukraine’s former commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and current ambassador to London, Valerii Zaluzhny, remains silent. During Zelensky’s recent visit to the UK, Zaluzhny appeared in photos greeting the president as a loyal diplomat. After five months of silence and a return to the public eye as just another official in Zelensky’s entourage, Ambassador Zaluzhny, once a promising new politician, seems to have accepted the loss of his political prospects.

But Olexiy Arestovych, once the voice of Zelensky’s administration in the first months of the war and now in self-exile, and others in opposition are more outspoken on and reactive to American politics. They seem to think that the changes in Washington could lead to a freeze in the war and an end to martial law, which would clear the way for presidential and parliamentary elections to occur, as well as open up opportunities for new political forces in postwar Ukraine. They are preparing for a revival of political life and have started collecting the necessary resources for future competition. 

The winds of change blowing from Washington are warming up Ukraine’s frozen politics. So far these winds are a light breeze, not a hurricane. The future will reveal how the political climate in Ukraine shifts under the stream of news coming out of the U.S. capital.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute