Update on Gaza: Can Ceasefire Talks Succeed?

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

• Update on Gaza: Can Ceasefire Talks Succeed?

  THIS IS AN UNEDITED TRANSCRIPT

  Hello, I'm John Milewski and this is Wilson Center NOW, a production of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. My guest today is Merissa Khurma. Merissa is director of the Wilson Center's Middle East program, and she joins us for a discussion of the latest update on the war between Israel and Hamas. Merissa, welcome. Thanks for joining us. Thank you so much, Jon.

  
  So, you know, we hoped when we discussed doing this interview that maybe there'd be more progress on this potential cease fire. But it seems to be in this sort of limbo state where allegedly there is this bridge deal in place that Israel has agreed to, but Hamas has not exactly welcomed with open arms. What can you tell us?

  
  Yes, there remains to be a lot of uncertainty around the hostage and ceasefire deal that's on the table. But this is also expected as there are lots of details to be negotiated. We are yet to hear about where Hamas stands regarding this bridging proposal that Secretary of State Blinken spoke of yesterday while in Israel. He traveled to Cairo and we'll be off to Doha, if not already there today, to also follow up with the two key U.S. allies, the two countries that have been critical brokers in this negotiation with Hamas.

  
  It's going to be a very difficult period of, you know, tit for tat back and forth for some time before we get to the deal that everybody is waiting for. And when I say everybody, I you know, I could maybe explain a little bit more. Well, over 63% of the Israeli public support this hostage deal. This is the latest poll coming out of Israel as of three days ago.

  
  And in the Palestinian territories and Gaza in particular, I mean, just the sheer suffering that people are going through on a daily basis, people. Last time there was an announcement that turned out to be inaccurate about reaching a deal. People were already out celebrating. And that gives you a sense of where people are at. There is so much fatigue of this war, particularly in Gaza, but around the region.

  
  So let's hope that these intensive rounds of negotiations that have been led by the United States and key allies in the region will pan out very, very soon. Should we be concerned about the language? This notion of a bridge deal makes it sound like almost a prelude to a real deal. And, you know, what does that tell us about how far each side is willing to go?

  
  Well, the the challenge here is that the two men on on either side of this negotiation do not necessarily want to see the end of this war. You're talking about the leader of Hamas and Benjamin Netanyahu, correct? Correct. Yes. And what is the new elected leader of Hamas since the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh? But even when Haniyeh was still alive, he was essentially a messenger, was signed.

  
  What made all the decisions? And prolonging the war prolongs the survival of Sinwar and Hamas. And it's similar on the other side with Bibi Netanyahu and his political career. Every step forward in this war prolongs his political career. And we've seen this with the assassinations just a few weeks ago of Hezbollah leader and of Haniyeh, and how that actually positively impacted his ratings in the latest poll.

  
  And so this is what he cares about. And and unfortunately, that's what's making these negotiations more difficult. I you know, I think Secretary Blinken is always very careful about using, you know, these different terminologies. And there's also something to be said about protecting the the the secrecy of the negotiations themselves. So you cannot say too much. And and and sometimes it's best not to say that I'm optimistic because every time we see that there's a little bit of hope and then we, you know, we're sort of pushed back.

  
  So it is going to be yet an an intensive round until something pans out to to return the hostages and to to have a cease fire in place in Gaza. Well, you and I sit here during this recording on the 20th of August and hours before we began, the news broke about six more dead hostages bodies recovered. Does that change the equation?

  Melissa as far as the motivation for either side to reach a deal. There's a create more or less urgency. I mean, it creates a little bit less urgency for the Israelis in particular because it's not the first time that that that they have retrieved bodies and it's not the first time that they also retrieved hostages that were alive through like, you know, surgical operations that they did in Gaza.

  And so, you know, and the problem with this is that, you know, we've seen with the previous operation, it killed many civilians, for example, in Gaza. And so the price is very, very high that the Palestinian people have paid in this regard. And that sends a message to, you know, Israelis that to people in the region and worldwide, that the only movement forward, the only way to end this is through or return to the hostages is through military means rather than diplomacy and a political process and negotiations.

  
  So, yeah, that obviously places less urgency for for the Israelis and so that the current number that everybody's estimating is around 100 plus 106 or so. And it's not clear whether all of them are alive. Reports indicate that at least a third of them are dead. And this is expected because we're talking about ten months of of war since the attacks of October 7th.

  
  And the way that this war has been conducted with a lot of just mass bombings that took place, it was highly likely that some of these hostages would be killed. The the other issue that has been percolating, especially after the assassination and the saber rattling that we heard from Iran, is once again the fear of this escalating into something even more horrific.

  
  Where are we on on that front? It seems as if Iran has been I don't even know what the proper word would be. They've shown some restraint and it would appear in their response. How do you see it? I see the intensive rounds of diplomacy and back channeling that has taken place since the assassination of Haniya as very much bearing some fruit with regards to this retaliatory attack by Iran and Hezbollah.

  
  We've also heard the Iranians link any any response to the cease fire deal. We've also heard the Hezbollah leader talk about not wanting to escalate in order not to have a temper with or impact at the hostage and cease fire deal that will basically, you know, end the war in Gaza. And so those are, again, positive indications. It's it's it's very hard to use the word positive in this context.

  
  But we have to we have to, you know, also take what we can get, especially that the region was holding its breath the first few days after these two assassinations took place, about what kind of response we were going to get from Iran, plus its various proxies that make their its its so-called axis of resistance. And I think that right now we're sort of in a holding area to see which way we're going to go.

  
  But we're hearing the regional leaders very loud and clear each time there's a meeting with U.S. officials about the importance of preventing further escalation. Because if this war does not end in Gaza, we're course we're going to constantly see more and more of this tit for tat tattoos. And, you know, by bye bye Israel and the and the different non-state actors and militant groups around and and that will just raise more tensions as we move forward about that larger context and the other countries involved.

  
  You know, we tend to focus on the the obvious leadership role that the U.S. is attempting to play in negotiations. But who are the other players that we should keep an eye on, who you feel have the most influence either on Hamas or on Israel, On Iran? Who else can be really, really helpful if we can reach some sort of peaceful resolution in the United States is working with all of its allies.

  
  There have been some back channels with the Iranians through Oman. There have been some back channels also through Jordan, where the Jordanian foreign minister visited Tehran. He was the highest ranking official to visit Iran in 20 years. And the message was very clear about the need to de-escalate. You know, with the risk of an all out regional war.

  
  And so with both Qatar and and Egypt also working around the clock to pressure Hamas. Those are the key players that that the United States is working with to see to see through this hostage deal and a cease fire that would just bring an end to the horrific ten plus months that we've witnessed. An ongoing criticism of Israel and of Netanyahu in particular, is that there doesn't seem to be any clear military objectives that most people agree are obtainable or reachable.

  You can't kill everyone who you decide is your enemy. So do we have any more clarity on that front? Do we have any idea of what the endgame vision could be from the Israeli perspective? I mean, the Israelis have indicated multiple times that they've killed over 15,000 Hamas fighters, and that is close to half of what the estimates were.

  
  The estimates in the beginning were closer to, you know, between 25 to 30000 fighters. And and we still, of course, don't know much about the tunnel system. But if you look at before and after images of Gaza and read the reports that we've seen so far from various international organizations, you'll see that more than 80% of the infrastructure is completely destroyed.

  
  I don't know. I don't see this as a military victory. Yes, the fighters have been half of the fighters have been terminated. But with this type of warfare and and where the Palestinian people are today, you know, there's so much hatred being bred on a daily basis. And this is no recipe for for peace, particularly in the long term.

  
  It's very difficult to to to declare victory because it's very difficult to dismantle Hamas completely. You know, when when Haniya was assassinated, one of the leaders of Hamas based, I think in Beirut, said you cannot terminate Hamas because Hamas is not about individuals or institutions. It's a concept, it's an ideology. And the only way to kill this ideology that are in armed conflict, in their words, armed resistance is the only way to end the occupation, is to replace it with a better ideology that gives people hope, gives people dignity, and a chance to live in peace and security.

  
  And this is the vision that the US administration has put forward, the vision of a two state solution. And this is what we're hearing from the regional leaders. But unfortunately we are not there yet and we're very far from what that what, you know, even starting on that path, we've had my questions. Melissa have focused on the big picture and on geopolitics and on the actual warfare.

  
  And I that's not to suggest that's a hierarchy of what's most important because the thing I want to ask you about now perhaps is the most important issue, and that is the situation on the ground, the suffering of the innocent and efforts to provide humanitarian aid. Where do we stand in that regard? I mean, this continues to be a humanitarian crisis that many people in the humanitarian sector have not seen in decades.

  
  The U.N. secretary general talked about this a few days ago when the polio case was identified in Gaza and an almost ten year old child in Gaza. And that's the first case detected in 20 years. Other diseases have also been reported. People are lacking food, water, of course, fuel, and they are constantly on the move because of the various attacks and bombardments that they are that they have to endure.

  
  And so this is a humanitarian crisis of a of a magnitude that that cannot be described in any other way, but horrific. The challenges with humanitarian aid, you know, go beyond the immediate present. It's it's it's also thinking about, well, how do we do this? You know, after a cease fire is in place. But the only way, again, forward to start to slightly improve the situation on the ground for the Palestine people is is through this deal, going through this, you know, humanitarian pause or a cease fire just to give people respite and allow for more humanitarian aid to to come in.

  
  I do I do want to point that, you know, it's been I've been talking to so many Israelis and Palestinians and, you know, there's there's a lot of trauma in both societies for for reasons that I think you and I discussed John in a previous podcast. You know, it's these attacks on October 7th completely shook the core of Israeli society and now this war and this destruction and human suffering.

  
  The same for Palestinians, not only in Gaza, but also those in the West Bank and in various parts of the region. But I've talked to Palestinian and Israelis. We're still working together to ensure that there's humanitarian aid going, getting through. They are even forming human, you know, human sort of civilian police in a way, to try to protect convoys, for example, from, in many cases, right wing settlers or rightwing groups in Israel that we're trying to prevent or burn some of these convoys where the police was just standing there and and doing absolutely nothing.

  
  And it is heartening to see that in the midst of all of this harshness, that there are still people working together because they recognize that this war is not going to solve the problem at hand. A final thought, Marissa, that I want to ask you about is to sort of calibrate our expectations as far as the timing of events.

  
  This bridge proposal we began our discussion around you mentioned how complex it is, how many details need to be worked out from different perspectives. We shouldn't probably expect any kind of definitive response for at least a week, perhaps more. Beyond that, what are we looking at and if this deal fails, are we past the point of just restarting negotiations, even though what else can you do but keep hope alive and keep trying?

  
  And at what point does it just just become a chronic condition, almost endless war? I think there's no other way but to go back to the negotiating table, no matter how many times it it fails. And I think that is the lesson learned from the Oslo process, actually. You know, a lot of people keep referring back to it as a complete failure because there were so many rounds and, you know, very little movement.

  
  But that's how it works. You have to keep moving forward. And with every setback, there is a new learning. But it takes political will to do so. So this administration has the political will to move it forward. The United States role is critical to lead this process. And the hope is that this continues. And we've seen other countries in Europe, as well as the EU, also putting pressure where needed.

  
  And and because, like you said, if this doesn't move forward, then we are going to be in a situation of endless war. And, you know, and then if if Netanyahu believes that they've achieved victory in Gaza, I don't think they will stop there. I think the plan was very much to move forward with the northern front and also destroy Hezbollah to ensure that Hezbollah will never be capable of doing with Hamas dead on October 7th.

  
  And then how is this going to end for Israelis and Palestinians and the Lebanese and the people of the region? There's no end in sight for the military option being the only option on the table. Yeah, nothing to do but keep trying. Right. I think, you know, still, President Biden, the U.S. in the middle of this election cycle said last night and I'm paraphrasing that the plan is that Tony Blinken is going to stick with it as long as necessary.

  
  So at least right now, the U.S. has this resolve. Merissa, thank you very much. Speaking of seeking. Sticking with it, we really appreciate you staying on top of this and giving us an opportunity to speak with you to get an update from time to time. Thank you. Thank you so much, John, for the opportunity. My guest has been Merissa Khurma, director of the Middle East program at the Wilson Center.

  
  And we hope you enjoyed this edition of Wilson Center now and that you'll join us again soon. Until then, for all of us at the center, I'm John Milewski Thanks for your time and interest.