Managing Scarcity in the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin in the Age of Climate Change

As the Eastern Mediterranean emerges as a climate change hotspot, the Euphrates-Tigris Basin is being fundamentally altered. Basin countries urgently need to prepare for and adapt to these changes, but the region has long been consumed by disputes between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey on how to share its water resources. The status quo favors Turkey as the upstream hegemon, yet a lack of rules around river flows will have ramifications for all countries—amplifying the risk of diplomatic conflict, instability, and humanitarian crises. To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the countries of the region should establish a trilateral institution and a basin-wide management framework.