After years of costly missteps in its foreign policy, Saudi Arabia has put forth a new doctrine called “positive neutrality” which has paid off handsomely with its recent hosting of initial peace talks between the United States and Russia over ending the war in Ukraine.  If and when difficult negotiations ahead produce an agreement, President Trump has already suggested that he and Russian leader Vladimir Putin should sign the deal at a summit in the Saudi capital.

The kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), would obviously be delighted to do so. After all, he first offered his services as peacemaker just one week after the war began on February 24, 2022. At that time, such a role for an Arab leader seemed the stuff of fantasy. But MBS persisted and three years later found himself the host, if not the mediator, of peace talks between high-ranking US and Russian diplomats. He has achieved his ambitious goal of projecting Saudi Arabia, and himself, to the forefront of world statecraft.

Working with Putin

His success stands in sharp contrast to his first forays into foreign policy, beginning as defense minister in 2015 and then ascending to heir apparent in 2017. Most of them proved counterproductive, particularly Saudi involvement in the unending Yemen’s civil war and its blockade of neighboring Qatar. This time, however, he is riding high and using positive neutrality—and Trump’s blessings—to play a prominent role in fostering negotiations to end the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II and possibly even a thaw in the US-Russian cold war.

MBS is riding high and using positive neutrality—and Trump’s blessings—to play a prominent role in fostering negotiations to end the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II.

The new Saudi policy of positive neutrality was first espoused by Egypt’s late ruler, Gamal Abdel Nasser, in his dealings with the Cold War rivalry between the same two protagonists. The policy allowed Nasser to play the two superpowers off one another, while simultaneously extracting economic aid from the United States and arms from Russia.

Since the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine three years ago as of February 24, the Saudi crown prince has found himself under enormous pressure from both Washington and Moscow to take a side in everything from votes at the United Nations to the battlefield inside Ukraine. In the former, Saudi Arabia supported resolutions in the General Assembly in 2022 and 2023 condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, demanding withdrawal of its troops and upholding the principle of territorial integrity.  But Saudi Arabia abstained in a similar resolution February 24, while the United States joined Russia for the first time in opposing it. At the same time, MBS has refused to follow the United States in imposing economic and financial sanctions on Russia, or isolating it diplomatically, to pressure Putin into suing for peace.

One reason for his refusal is that MBS has developed a close working partnership with Putin to keep the price of oil as high as possible. Saudi Arabia is the leader of the 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and since 2016 worked closely with a bloc of other major non-OPEC producers led by Russia. MBS and Putin consult regularly on production levels by this so-called OPEC+ cartel in this endeavor which has helped Putin greatly to finance his war in Ukraine. (By contrast, Trump is calling for OPEC+ to increase production to lower prices for the American consumer.) At the same time, to appease Washington, MBS has refused to provide Ukraine with economic or financial aid but committed $400 million in humanitarian aid which it continues to dispense. 

From almost the start of the Ukraine war, MBS began crafting a role of mediator for himself. His first phone calls offering his services to Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky date back to March 3, 2022, just a week after its onset. Since then, he has held multiple meetings or phone calls with both leaders. At first, the main issue was about exchanges of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners of war, which the crown prince helped to arrange on several occasions. One in September 2022 included two American POWs fighting on the Ukrainian side. 

Reaching out to Ukraine

MBS and his foreign minister, Faisal bin Farhan, began speaking out about Saudi positive neutrality at an Arab League summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in May 2023. Zelensky was also there seeking support for his 10-point peace plan. After a meeting between MBS and Zelensky, the Saudi foreign minister spelled out the Saudi attitude toward the Ukraine conflict, describing it as a “positive neutral position.” (Al-Arabiya, May 19, 2023)

This policy may explain why Saudi Arabia has put off a decision on whether to join the BRIC bloc of nations formed in 2009 initially by Brazil, Russia, India and China to stand up to US dominance of the world order. Since then, the bloc has expanded to include South Africa and more recently several US partners, including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Iran, Saudi Arabia’s chief rival for regional primacy, is also a member, which may be an additional factor in Saudi calculations.

Clearly MBS now owes Trump a big debt of gratitude for promoting his rise to prominence on the world scene. How the Saudi leader will react when Trump presses him to back his Gaza policy remains to be seen.

How positive neutrality will impact MBS’ relations with Trump remains to be seen. Already during the Biden administration, the Saudi crown prince had been negotiating a formal security and defense treaty with the United States that had not been completed before Biden left office. Such a treaty was part of a more ambitious Biden goal to entice Saudi Arabia into establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. 

A Saudi Israeli breakthrough is also high on Trump’s agenda. But reaching this goal has become far more difficult after his proposal for all Palestinians to leave Gaza and hints of his intent to recognize Israeli annexation of the occupied West Bank. On the other hand, MBS has taken the lead with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to promote the Arab plan, which Israel vehemently opposes, for a two-state solution allowing for an independent Palestinian state to emerge from the ashes of the Gaza war. 

MBS and Trump forged a close relationship right at the start of the US president’s first term, with Saudi Arabia marking his first trip abroad. The two are business partners in several ventures; a Trump Tower going is up in Jeddah, and MBS has promised to invest $600 billion in the US economy. 

Clearly MBS now owes Trump a big debt of gratitude for promoting his rise to prominence on the world scene. How the Saudi leader will react when Trump presses him to back his Gaza policy remains to be seen, but his new doctrine of positive neutrality will clearly be put to the test.

The views represented in this piece are those of the author and do not express the official position of the Wilson Center.