Zambia gets 85% of its electricity from hydropower. It’s now on the verge of approving its third coal-fired power plant in a year.

Hydropower is easily the world’s largest source of renewable electricity. It contributes more in low-carbon power production than wind, solar, geothermal, and bioenergy combined. And it meets more than half of the national electricity needed in 28 developing countries, home to approximately 800 million people.

Nowhere is hydropower’s significance as a renewable energy source greater than in Sub-Saharan Africa, where it accounts for nearly one-quarter of all electricity produced. In some nations, hydropower’s role is particularly dominant. For example, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Malawi, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo—all use hydropower to produce 80% or more of their electricity. 

But current utilization of hydropower is just scratching the surface of what it could be. According to the International Energy Agency, approximately 89% of Africa’s hydropower potential is still untapped. With around 600 million individuals across Sub-Saharan Africa still lacking access to reliable electricity, the importance of hydropower is obvious. 

One of the traditional drawbacks to relying on hydropower has been the unpredictability of moisture cycles in Africa. However, recent advances in technology have mitigated some of the risks. One innovation being used is the equivalent of a “large battery,” according to International Water Management Institute expert Matthew McCartney. When electricity costs are low, power producers can pump and store quantities of water uphill, to be released at a time when costs have significantly risen or there’s a sudden increase in demand.

However, the situation in Zambia, which relies on hydropower for 85% of its electricity generation, shows that hydropower is not a panacea—especially in an era of increasing weather volatility and unpredictability. Southern Africa is in the midst of its most severe drought in over a century. A change in its weather pattern due to El Niño has significantly reduced the water levels in places like Zambia, leading to shortages in food and drastic price increases in electricity. In fact, demand driven prices in electricity for the country’s largest consumers rose 115% in November. At the same time, prices of consumer goods increased 16.5%.

Stung by a combination of the limited reliability of hydropower in current circumstances and Zambia’s rapidly growing needs, its national power regulator began approving many coal-fired power plants. In July, it signed off on the country’s second-ever coal-fired plant. By September, another $400 million coal plant to be built by Maamba Collieries Limited (which according to AidData, received initial financing support for the first phase of the power plant from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China) was approved. And in November, another $900 million plant to be built by a Chinese-owned company came up for consideration. China already leads the world in the production of new coal-fired plants domestically. In 2022 it broke ground on six times as many coal power plants than the rest of the world combined.

More than anything else, Zambia’s situation serves as a reminder that moving away from fossil fuels for the world’s growing energy needs won’t be quick or easy. Policymakers and diplomats are on a relentless search for technology “silver bullets” that will produce energy more cleanly and more cost-effectively with few “sacrifices.” For example, the International Renewable Energy Agency has called for the world’s hydropower capacity to double in less than 30 years to help meet climate targets set at the United Nations Climate Change Conference. But Zambia shows that simply embracing more hydropower investment won’t make all of our challenges disappear.

Zambia’s cautionary tale isn’t an argument for doing nothing, but it is a reminder that we probably need to do “all of the above” in terms of our approach to energy… conservation, innovation, and lots of sources.

This blog was researched and drafted with assistance from Chelsea Acheampong and Katherine Schauer.